El Nino is set to become more intense, further elevating the risk of extreme weather globally.
Geneva, 18 September: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) announced that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued to warm and are expected to develop into a very strong episode by the end of 2026, further increasing the risk of weather extremes in large areas of the globe, with a near 100% chance that the event will last through February 2027.
Pacific Ocean warming indicates a stronger El Nino regime.
To develop into a very powerful El Nino, the tropical Pacific Ocean wants to proceed to warmth up. The climate bureau mentioned that the surroundings in tropical Pacific waters are much warmer than regular, which has helped the occasion deepen, and that the warming is predicted to hit an excessive amount on the finish of 2026. This warming will heavily impact global rainfall and temperature patterns and may result in an increased number of floods, droughts, and heatwaves.
Sea surface temperatures are well above average in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific, with subsurface temperatures also at record-high levels of warmth.
Varying impacts across regions
While no two El Nino events are exactly alike, a very strong El Nino does not mean equal impacts around the world. According to the WMO, impacts of an El Nino event are influenced by where in the world they are experienced, the time of year, and the impact of other climate factors, including the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Climate outlooks for the September-November 2026 period suggest near or above-average temperatures over land areas everywhere except the northern high latitudes, with a wide range of temperature and rainfall impacts depending on the region. WMO is urging countries and national meteorological offices around the world to step up preparedness and early-warning actions as the event continues to develop.
