A strong climate feature is developing under the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates that El Niño conditions are now actively forming, with ocean temperatures inching closer to 6°C above average at sea level, and are likely to continue influencing the global weather for months. During June to August 2026, they have given an 80% chance of developing El Niño, and later, this chance increases to about 90%, and the chances of ENSO-neutral conditions become 10%. The chances of redevelopment of La Niña are close to none for the entire forecast period.
This means that most of the world will experience warmer summers. According to WMO’s probabilistic forecast, there is a rise in heat stress, severe drought, and increased drought risk in vulnerable areas due to the rise in normal temperatures during July and August 2026. Drier than normal expected occurrences across parts of Australia, Indonesia, Central America, and much of South Asia, with a weak Indian subcontinent monsoon occurring. Wetter-than-average conditions are expected across parts of southern South America, the Horn of Africa, and parts of central Asia, and below-normal rainfall is expected in parts of Australia, Indonesia, Central America, and much of South Asia, including the potential for a below-normal monsoon season over South Asia.
The Secretary-General of WMO, Celeste Saulo, pointed out that the last El Niño (2023–24) was one of the five most intense on record and played a role in the record global temperatures recorded in 2024. Climate change is increasing the impacts of El Niño events, which occur naturally, but when it acts as the trigger, extreme weather will be more intense due to a warmer ocean and atmosphere.
In this context, the WMO appeals to governments, humanitarian organizations, and climate-sensitive sectors to act now on advanced WMO seasonal forecasts. Early warning systems, the organization emphasizes, are still the best instrument to help save lives and mitigate economic losses in the coming months.
