The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook Report of April 2026 is a clear warning: the current conflict in the Middle East is causing major commodity markets to have grave consequences worldwide. Energy prices will rise 24% in 2026, back to their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with commodity prices expected to increase 16% due to sharp increases in energy and fertilizer and record-high metals prices.
The forecast for emerging markets and developing economies has been cut from its previous 4% growth for 2026 to 3.6%, while the inflation forecast has been lifted from 4.1% to 5.1%. Some 70% of commodity importers and over 60% of commodity exporters worldwide are at risk of experiencing less-than-anticipated growth.
The rise in food insecurity could also be significant, as the World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that if oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, up to 45 million more people could find themselves in the case of severe food shortages.
