The Indian economy highlighted considerable resilience and strong growth in domestic demand, reliable external balance, and budgetary discipline. High-existence indicators pointed to constant speed. The number of e-bills reached a record level, while the manufacturing PMI reached a 16-month peak, and the services continued to expand, along with the growing trade confidence. The trend of consumption was also healthy; rural demand was buoyed by a favorable monsoon, while urban markets showed strength through high FMCG sales, UPI transactions, and an increase in vehicle purchases.
The fiscal policy maintained its capex-powered emphasis, with government capital expenditure growing 52% year-on-year in Q1 FY26, while non-tax revenue remained stable. On the inflation front, better agricultural production and relaxation of food prices under the RBI’s 2 to 6% target band in July led to a rapidly increased headline inflation of 1.6% in July. Core inflation was also controlled, allowing the monetary policy committee to keep the repo rate stable at 5.5% and adopt a balancing point. Even with the global trade uncertainty, the outskirts of India were favorable.
Merchandise exports expanded by 7.3%, boosted by commerce in non-oil and non-GEM categories, and imports grew 6.1%, widening the trade deficit to USD 11.7 billion. Nevertheless, the foreign exchange reserves were strong at US $695 billion, or enough to cover 11.4 months of imports. Progress on multiple global trade agreements, including the India-UK CETA and India-EFTA TEPA, further solidified India’s position in foreign markets.
The labor market also showed improvement, with higher participation and reduced unemployment. Formal job creation hit a record, led by EPFO enrollments, particularly among young workers. White-collar hiring expanded in non-IT areas as well as emerging opportunities in AI-related areas. With sound policies and an advanced credit rating, India has been well deployed to attract investment and continuous growth, although global tariffs are challenges to subdue friction and private capital expenses.