Poland’s Defense-Led Growth Strategy: Highest NATO Defense Share and Its Economic Trade-offs
Poland's government presented its draft budget of about, it might say, 918.9 billion zloty (approx. US$252 billion) for 2026. The key feature of the draft budget reports was the national security establishment in the amount dedicated to defense spending (4.8 percent of GDP). At about 200 billion zloty (about US$55 billion) in defense spending, it will be the highest level of spending associated with NATO's event, less than their goal of two percent of GDP. Even though emergency expenditures are 4.7% in 2025. The document highlights Warsaw's desire to ensure its mandate for a defense establishment directed by the risks of security from the War of Russia on Ukraine in the neighboring area. The report expands on the 918.9 budget expenditure that forecasts revenues will exceed 647.2 billion zloty, leading to a deficit of 271.7 billion zloty falling to 6.5 percent of GDP, down from this year’s figure of 6.9 percent.
The draft budget is also not exclusively about defense. Healthcare will see a good uplift, with a 25 billion zloty increase in healthcare spending, and the healthcare envelope will equal 247.8 billion zloty. Other major projects, such as building Poland's first nuclear power plant, building a central transport hub, and investing in energy transition, will happen. Funding for social assistance, like the 800-zloty monthly child benefit and a new “widow’s pension,” will also persist.
Budgetary economic forecasts expect GDP growth of 3.5% in 2026, slightly ahead of 3.4% this year, along with inflation averaging 3% and wage growth at 6.4%, which should increase real household incomes.
Although, 66.8% of GDP is estimated on public debt, which is still higher than 60% of the European Union border. The method of excessive losses of the EU has estimated to lower their deficit by 3 percent GDP by the year 2028. Generally, the recommended budget examines Poland’s plan to support military preparedness and also to uphold wider expansion in healthcare and strategic ideas for infrastructure and social security related to this year’s budget.
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